The election of Donald Trump as American president will have global effects. While Trump’s time in office will have an impact on many factors such as the economy, trade, border protection, foreign aid etc, many wonder whether his policies will have an effect on Australian Government policies and in particular Australian immigration policy.
Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States has been labelled as aggressive. He has been quite vocal in discussing his plans to ‘make America great again’. Deporting undocumented immigrants and continuing his plans to resume construction of the border wall to strengthen the U.S.–Mexico border and potentially renaming the Gulf of Mexico are just some of the initiatives Donald Trump has announced in the short time since he was elected to office for the second time.
While Australia won’t be directly impacted by Trump’s measures to secure the U.S. border, his actions could influence global migration policies. If other countries, especially Western nations, consider adopting similar strategies, Australia may feel the pressure to align their policies even though it has its own immigration standards. To some extent this could be viewed as “reciprocal immigration policies” as is the case with the reciprocal tariff policies.
Will it be More Difficult for Australians to Enter the United States?
While Donald Trump has broad power when it comes to immigration policy, his power over the granting of visas is somewhat more limited. As an example, he could:
- Increase visa application requirements and fees
- Reduce the number of visas available for Australians
- Impose stricter background checks or eligibility criteria
- Limit the duration of stays or make visa renewals more difficult
- Suspend or revoke certain visa programs such as the E-3 visa which is specifically for Australian professionals working in the U.S.
Many of these factors could deter Australians from even considering travelling to the United States.
Currently, Australia has a visa-waiver agreement with the United States, however while unlikely, President Trump could decide to annul the agreement which would impact Australians’ ability to travel to the U.S. While everyone hopes that won’t happen, Trump does have a precedent for blocking citizens of other countries. In 2017, he put a 90-day restriction on entry to the U.S. from people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and many other countries of the Middle East and Africa. While a similar ban on Australia would most likely be overturned by the courts, it could drag on long enough to have a big impact on the travel plans of Australians.
And while it could get potentially harder for Australians wanting to enter the U.S., life could get even harder for the approximately 90,000 Aussie ex-pats currently living in the United States. The White House is currently discussing doubling ex-pat taxes in response to the Australian Government’s proposed digital platform levy. This levy would require American internet giants such as Google and Facebook to have to pay Australian news sites for content.
It should be noted that Donald Trump has no reason to penalise or ‘come after’ Australia but the fact that he has created issues with other nations including Denmark, Mexico, Canada, Panama and Columbia over the last month or so does put everyone on high alert.
Australia could fight back with tariffs, visa restrictions and taxes of its own but it would only damage Australia’s economic interests.
Australia’s Unique Position
While it seems no one is safe from President Trump’s scrutiny, Australia does hold a unique position should Trump take issue with Australia. Australia is one of only a few countries where the United States has a trade surplus, meaning that if Australia were to raise tariffs in retaliation of any action against Australia by the U.S., the U.S. would be worse off as a whole.
Australia is also the only country where America has a net-migration loss – more Americans immigrate to Australia opposed to Australians immigrating to the United States.
But what about the countries that historically have sent people to the U.S? How do immigration policy changes impact them and are they likely to shift their focus to other countries that are considered ‘safer’ in terms of political risk?
To the extent that occurs, Australia may well be seen as a safe haven and may well attract some of the global movement of people that would have otherwise looked at moving to the USA.
As of January 2025, the number of immigrants (legal and illegal) in the United States reached 53.3 million – 15.8% of the U.S. population and the largest number of immigrants in U.S. history. This figure represents an increase of 8.3 million over the last four years and is the largest growth seen in the previous 12 years.
In the last four years, immigrants from Latin America, India, the Middle East and China have made up a majority of the migrant intake into the U.S.
Time will tell how Australia will be impacted by Donald Trump’s election to office. And with an Australian Federal Election looming, things may start to get interesting.
For more information on any aspect of immigration or to speak to a registered migration agent, contact the team at Visa Solutions Australia.
